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Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-27, 8:33 pm

drizzle
Posts: 291
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Yep. Shagging hookers is more dangerous than not shagging hookers. Wear a wellie. Anyway, I like the relative lack of pointless arguments round here. So I'll bow out.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-27, 9:49 pm

BlutoBlutarsky Admin
Posts: 1961
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First, thank you Weasel for all the detailed info you've provided in this thread.
As far as the stats: as I understand things...

if probability of contracting XYZ = 1/1000 (.001) per visit

then, probability of contracting XYZ over N visits = N/1000

So, in this instance, 1000 visits more or less guarantees that one will contract XYZ in that time.

Am I mistaken? I'm no maths scholar but some of the statistics cited in this thread don't seem right in my mind (stoned as it may be at the moment.) Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

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Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-27, 10:03 pm

grimnul Power Kat
Posts: 1538
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Yeah, I don't mean to stir up any trouble. This is a pretty chill board, I'd rather it stay that way too.

This is just something I've been thinking about, because I really do love going to Amsterdam, and a big part of that is visiting the ladies.

Being able to do that really is a massive quality of life improvement over my day-to-day back home. As a man, particularly in North America, I really have little control over my own sex life. I can go out looking for sex, but at the end of the day, it's entirely up to the various women I encounter whether I actually will get it or not. Being able to get sex 100% of the time at will without even having to think about it is an absolute game-changer. Men, I think, often don't realize how much time and energy they waste thinking about women and sex. Being able to stop doing that really makes you realize how exhausted you make yourself. It's a huge weight off my shoulders to be able to do this.

I've also met a lot of interesting people, heard a lot of interesing stories, seen a lot of interesting things, and of course, had some of the best sex of my life with the most gorgeous women I'll ever get to be with.

I just don't want this to be something I look back on and regret, y'know? STDs are scary, some of them can really fuck up your life. I want to make sure that I'm minimizing my risks as much as possible. Life really isn't worth living if you're not gonna take some risks and have fun, but at the same time, you don't want that to be your undoing. It's a bit of a balancing act.

I suppose in the end, the fact that so many of you on this board have had so many sessions and collectively had little to no trouble (outside of the occasional rip-off artist) does ease my worries to an extent.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-27, 10:24 pm

drizzle
Posts: 291
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Bluto:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-28, 4:06 am

george47 Power Kat
Posts: 1074
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BlutoBlutarsky wrote:
First, thank you Weasel for all the detailed info you've provided in this thread.
As far as the stats: as I understand things...

if probability of contracting XYZ = 1/1000 (.001) per visit

then, probability of contracting XYZ over N visits = N/1000

So, in this instance, 1000 visits more or less guarantees that one will contract XYZ in that time.

Am I mistaken? I'm no maths scholar but some of the statistics cited in this thread don't seem right in my mind (stoned as it may be at the moment.) Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.


The only thing significantly wrong is "probability of contracting XYZ over N visits = N/1000". Consider the dice analogy again. There's 1:6 chance of rolling a 6 but that doesn't mean in 6 rolls it is 6:6 (which is 100% certainty). That would only be the case if a number was prevented from occurring again, like a lottery where each ball is taken out and can't be repeated.
I am curious to know if the risk factor takes into account the likelihood of a girl actually having a disease. Is it deemed low risk because few girls do or is it because the risk of transmission from an infected girl is considered low?
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-28, 4:26 am

grimnul Power Kat
Posts: 1538
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Well, I think realistically, your odds of getting something from a sex worker may actually be lower than from a random girl at a bar or off a dating site.

Most sex workers, from what I've seen, seem to be very careful about that stuff. It makes sense, if they get something, they lose their livelihood. I've talked about this with Dita, she told me she's never had an STI, and I believe it. She actually quit porn because there had been an outbreak in the industry and she felt it was too risky to keep doing, given that porn is generally unprotected.

Only close call I've ever had was from a girl I had a hookup with off a dating site a few months back. Bitch texted me two days after the fact and told me another dude she'd been with had chlamydia, and she'd tested positive. I got tested, luckily was clean, but it takes more than two days to get your results back, so either this chick new she had it when we hooked up, or her test results were pending and she knew she might've had it. Either way, she didn't tell me.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-28, 12:31 pm

losbal
Posts: 214
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BlutoBlutarsky wrote:
First, thank you Weasel for all the detailed info you've provided in this thread.
As far as the stats: as I understand things...

if probability of contracting XYZ = 1/1000 (.001) per visit

then, probability of contracting XYZ over N visits = N/1000

So, in this instance, 1000 visits more or less guarantees that one will contract XYZ in that time.

Am I mistaken? I'm no maths scholar but some of the statistics cited in this thread don't seem right in my mind (stoned as it may be at the moment.) Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.


You are close, but mistaken. You've added the probabilities together whereas you need to multiply them. The probability for not contacting XYZ from any of your visits is equal to the probability of not getting it in the first visit multiplied by the probability of not getting it in the second visit multiplied by the probability of not getting in the third visit etc. Assuming each visit can be classed as an independent event (like throwing a dice) then your example gives you a probability of never having contracted XYZ from your 1,000 encounters of (999/1000) ^ 1000 = 37% or a 63% chance of having contracted it (at least once). Clearly not guaranteeing that you'll be disease ridden.

The key is whether the visit prob of contracting stays the same each time. For example if you were playing Russian roulette with a six-shooter and spin the barrel each time, the probability of death the next time is always 1/6 conditional on not having blown your head off. If on the other hand you don't spin the barrel the probability (or hazard) conditional on not having shot yourself goes 1/6 to 1/5 to 1/4 to 1/3 to 1/2 to 1/1.

You would therefore have a 40% chance of surviving five pulls of the trigger if you spun the barrel each time and only a 17% chance if you didn't
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-28, 1:31 pm

george47 Power Kat
Posts: 1074
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grimnul wrote:
Well, I think realistically, your odds of getting something from a sex worker may actually be lower than from a random girl at a bar or off a dating site.

Most sex workers, from what I've seen, seem to be very careful about that stuff. It makes sense, if they get something, they lose their livelihood. I've talked about this with Dita, she told me she's never had an STI, and I believe it. .

I agree that most are very careful but they are not the ones performing unprotected acts. How exactly is Dita being careful if she is having the unprotected sex we are talking about? Checks might help but unless you have a check after every man I don't see they have much value.
BTW I can't imagine any working girl telling any client that she has been infected in the past.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-28, 6:39 pm

grimnul Power Kat
Posts: 1538
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Yeah, you might be right about that.

I guess it all comes back to what we're discussing here. Dita does do BBBJ, but it seems like that is rather low risk overall, and in her case, due to her rates, she's not seeing multiple customers a day like window girls are. She does not do anything else unprotected, she specifically says on her site not to ask about that stuff.

Either way, the point stands, after who knows how many sessions I've had now (at least 100), the only time I've ever had a problem was with a "civilian".
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-28, 6:46 pm

drizzle
Posts: 291
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I know I said I wouldn't but...
Russian roulette
Probability of surviving any given round, before you pull (P)= 5/6 (Five out of six chambers are empty)
You already survived four rounds, so survival for the first four is definite (100%, or 1), after the pull.
So multiplying the probabilities together together gives you:
1x1x1x1x 5/6= 5/6, or 0.83 percent chance of surviving five pulls of the trigger.

In terms of sex, if you have already survived a 999 window encounters (lucky bastard!) then the odds for the thousandth are the same as for the first. Previous episodes don't affect the next one.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-29, 1:00 am

george47 Power Kat
Posts: 1074
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drizzle wrote:
I know I said I wouldn't but...
Russian roulette
Probability of surviving any given round, before you pull (P)= 5/6 (Five out of six chambers are empty)
You already survived four rounds, so survival for the first four is definite (100%, or 1), after the pull.
So multiplying the probabilities together together gives you:
1x1x1x1x 5/6= 5/6, or 0.83 percent chance of surviving five pulls of the trigger.

In terms of sex, if you have already survived a 999 window encounters (lucky bastard!) then the odds for the thousandth are the same as for the first. Previous episodes don't affect the next one.

I am sorry but your maths is simply wrong. Your error is in ignoring the fact that you might have died during the first 4 pulls.

Chances of surviving with 1 pull- 83.3%
Chances of surviving with 2 pulls- 69.44%
Chances of surviving with 3 pulls- 57.87%
Chances of surviving with 4 pulls- 48.23%
Chances of surviving with 5 pulls- 40.19%

See how it decreases even though the odds each time you pull is the same? This is fairly basic maths and any maths student or teacher will confirm it.
Your last statement is true but once again it is also true that within 1000 encounters you are at far greater risk. That does not contradict your statement and no one here has argued in favour of the gamblers fallacy. Do you see how both go hand in hand? Every time an event occurs it affects the overall probability (not future individual ones) so having survived 999 your risk is then low for the whole 1000 (same as for 1) but at the start (before you got your amazing run of luck) the odds were very high (for the whole 1000).
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-29, 11:49 am

lior52
Posts: 67
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Just FYI again a case of std after visting Mila mentioned on hookers.nl i would advise everyone to go for save service you don't want an std as a souvenir from amsterdam.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-29, 11:50 am

drizzle
Posts: 291
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OK, my bad, I should have said surviving the fifth pull, not surviving five pulls. But the maths is correct, if you have already survived five pulls. You obviously don't have any chance of dieing from a pull if you have already survived it. Any maths teacher can confirm that.

So assuming none of us have an STI, we have the same chance of contracting one next time regardless of how many previous encounters we have had.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-29, 1:44 pm

george47 Power Kat
Posts: 1074
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drizzle wrote:
OK, my bad, I should have said surviving the fifth pull, not surviving five pulls. But the maths is correct, if you have already survived five pulls. You obviously don't have any chance of dieing from a pull if you have already survived it. .

Yes, no one is denying that. We are talking about the chance of dying sometime within those 5 pulls. You are arguing something different. Once again, it is a fact that individual odds do not change and it is also a fact that higher frequency = higher risk. I did this stuff in A level maths and my class would be screaming at you right now. Several people have tried to explain it to you and this is the last time I will bother. I would rather think about the girls I'm going to shag (safely) next week.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-29, 4:57 pm

drizzle
Posts: 291
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LOL, so you agree with everything I said, but can't be bothered to explain it to me again. OK dude. Have fun. BTW thanks for the maps.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-29, 7:35 pm

george47 Power Kat
Posts: 1074
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drizzle wrote:
LOL, so you agree with everything I said, but can't be bothered to explain it to me again. OK dude. Have fun. BTW thanks for the maps.

OK sorry, I think I get your last post now.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-30, 9:45 pm

jimmy_nova
Posts: 329
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This is an interesting topic as a fan of DATY; it seems like many "normal" people in my experience have very weird ideas about DATY with professional girls.

I'm also interested to have some idea of the risks involved with golden showers given by girls? It's not something I've done very often, but I have done it before and would probably do it again.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-30, 9:58 pm

lilji
Posts: 432
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jimmy_nova wrote:
This is an interesting topic as a fan of DATY; it seems like many "normal" people in my experience have very weird ideas about DATY with professional girls.

I'm also interested to have some idea of the risks involved with golden showers given by girls? It's not something I've done very often, but I have done it before and would probably do it again.



I've not done it but piss is sterile; there's no risk.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-30, 10:53 pm

jimmy_nova
Posts: 329
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I found it pretty hard to convince myself that there's no risk in golden showers, so I did a little searching and it seems that piss being sterile is actually a myth.
Re: Safety of certain activities
Posted: 2015-05-31, 12:30 am

grimnul Power Kat
Posts: 1538
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Urine is definitely not sterile, that's a myth. I doubt any part of the human body is actually completely "sterile". That said, I haven't been able to find even a single reference to an STI/STD, or any sort of infection for that matter, being transferred through urine.

It seems like urine just isn't an efficient method of spreading viruses or bacteria, so while it could, theoretically happen, it would be extraordinarily unlikely.

What CAN happen, although it's also very unlikely, is various mineral toxicities. That would require you to have just under the toxic threshold of a mineral in your system and her to have high enough levels in her system for her urine to contain more than just trace amounts, though. I suppose if you were taking particularly high-dosage supplements for medical reasons or something, or you have bad kidneys, it might be something to be careful about. Realistically, it'd almost never be an issue, though.
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