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HIV
Posted: 2006-01-24, 1:32 pm

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Last edited by DELETED on 2006-01-25, 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: HIV
Posted: 2006-01-24, 5:51 pm

Frans Hals
Posts: 75
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Sounds like a bullshit report to me. How on earth did these researchers get the male clients to agree to participate in the study and take HIV tests? If there had been positive tests of clients, the researchers would have had an obligation to follow up and alert the person, but given the transient and international nature of the clientele, it would have been almost impossible to do this. This is why, to me, this sounds like garbage.
Re: HIV
Posted: 2006-01-24, 5:54 pm

Frans Hals
Posts: 75
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Furthermore, to get a figure of 1% of Ghanaians and Surinamers being HIV+, you would have had to test at least 100 people in that catergory, which is inherently improbably. (If you had tested only 50 and 1 person was positive, you would have a figure of 2%.)
Re: HIV
Posted: 2006-01-24, 11:31 pm

slick
Posts: 426
Location: A'dam
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For those interested:
http://www.rivm.nl/persberichten/2005/HIV_Amsterdam.jsp

It's in dutch though............

Or:
http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/441100021.html (also in english)

They checked 242 prostitutes and 52 customers.

It's a bit confusing in fiets's post, but the Surinamers, Antillians and Ghanaians aren't prostitutes, just regular people..
They were checked to test the HIV rate among the 3 largest migrant groups in Amsterdam
Re: HIV
Posted: 2006-01-26, 3:39 pm

Frans Hals
Posts: 75
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Thanks, Slick. I had a look at the articles and was surprised that the Dutch was not too hard to read. Of the non prostitute immigrants they tested 285 Surinamers, 179 Ghanaians, and 186 folks from the Antilles. So this still means that out of about 650 people tested they had no more than 5 positive HIV tests, which is kind of inconclusive, given that you don't know the exact mode of transmission for these individuals. Still, I think what the researchers are saying is that quite a few people in these populations have unsafe sex with friends and with prostitutes, and that you can't rule out transmission from, say, someone who comes from Surinam already HIV+ to others in Amsterdam, some of whom may be prostitutes. (It seems that HIV positivity is higher in Tippelzone prostitutes than in window girls.)

I guess this means that condom use is recommended.
Re: HIV
Posted: 2006-01-28, 3:39 am

curiious
Posts: 55
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PROBABILITIES:

So if rld girls are 7% HIV+ overall, 4% in rld, and if condom failure is around 2%, and transmission rate from hiv+ woman to a man during unprotected sex is 3.5%, then the odds of contracting hiv from visiting rld girls is [0.04]*[0.02]*[0.035] = 1 / 35714.

SO if you have sex with 17000 non-iv drug using rld commercial sex workers, condom every time, then you have a 50% chance of contracting hiv. Why, that's 1 a day every day for 46.5 years... But if you have sex with a more reasonable number, say 500 rld girls, all non-iv drug using window girls, your odds of contracting hiv is around 1.4%.

Note 1 in 5 dies of a heart attack and 1 in 7 dies of cancer.
And something has to kill you eventually, right? We should all be so lucky as to be lying on our deathbed saying 'I never should have visited those 35000 prostitutes.' yeah, it's a tough life...

imagine asking the average terminal cancer patient if they wish they had visited 2000 rld girls when they had the stamina for it, in exchange for the 6% risk they would contract hiv, a disease that can take up to 30 years to kill you... At some point, you won't be able to go back and decide to try these things. Will you be glad you never risked it, never experienced it?

Just saying.
Re: HIV
Posted: 2006-01-28, 6:14 pm

peter mac
Posts: 8
Location: uk
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Wow. im convinced. nice stats,lets go party. If you ever need a job selling talk to me.

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