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Trying to outthink the airline industry
Posted: 2006-02-26, 5:33 pm

block
Posts: 458
Location: Texas 2
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I know that there have been several posting in the past concerning how the airlines toy with ticket prices.However the past several months have left me dazed and confused.It really seems as though airlines are playing close to the vest this year,at least for flightsafter March.Several times in the past I have found very inexpensive tickets from Texas to Amsterdam for late summer on thru October and November.This year it looks like airlines and ticket brokers are sticking with the somewhat affordable prices until April then it is through the roof with no exceptions.I cannot help but think that if one airline takes the lead and lowers prices that others will follow and airlines are not going to price themselves out of business either.$800 from Texas to Amsterdam in October seems to be about 250-300 higher than usual,anyone else have any theories or ideas on what will happen with prices in the upcoming months? I continue to search......

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"I sure learned a lot from Bill Evans"

Miles Davis
Re: Trying to outthink the airline industry
Posted: 2006-02-26, 7:27 pm

abc123Power Kat XXX
Power Kat XXX
Posts: 343
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After years of playing this game I've kind of developed a routine. Keep in mind that I live in Chicago which is the center of the country's air transport system. It's a major hub for United and American and is served by every major European carrier and some not so major. I flew Chicago-Amsterdam in January and I have tickets to go back April 7. My daughter is thinking of flying to Europe this coming summer so I've been glancing at those flights too. This first thing I can tell you for sure is that prices are up about $100 across the board from last year. I paid around $500 in January when it's normally around $400 and $600 in April when it's normally around $500.

Someone on this board posted once that, excepting last minute bargains, fares are generally at their lowest around 60 days prior to departure. Unless an unbelievable bargain pops up you're better off waitng until you're around 60 days out. In January everything was around $650 until 61 days before we left when KLM dropped their fares to $500. Shopping for the April trip, fares were $700-800. 58 days before departure KLM went to $515.

The only way to play this game successfully is to use Mobissimo or Kayak to search fares. Search three times a day. Morning, early evening and right before you go to bed, hopefully after midnight. Fare changes generally take place late at night. The thing I like about Mobissimo (www.mobissimo.com) is that they show the price inclusive of taxes and fees. One place that seems to pick up fares that Mobissimo misses is www1800flyeurope.com . Beware though
that the fares they initially show you are before the taxes and fees are added. Once you find a fare, check out the airlines own web site. Sometimes the airline's site is a bit cheaper than the discounters and if everything is equal you're better off buying direct from the airline. If the fare should go down the airline will often issue you a voucher for the difference if you ask. If you buy form Orbitz or Expedia they won't.

The key thing is to grab the fare the minute you see it. Some of these fares dissappear almost immediately. Have a target price in mind and buy when you see a fare that's at or near it. If you're looking for a $600 fare and you see $619 buy it. Don't lose the fare for $19. When I got the ticket for April I posted a note here that KLM had cut fares. Some people tried to get the same fare a few hours later and couldn't, they vanish that quick.

Good luck
Re: Trying to outthink the airline industry
Posted: 2006-02-26, 7:56 pm

krautinz
Posts: 30
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Hi, a thing I did from time to time when I was travelling for business a lot was to get a ticket to London that was valid for a year.

I then purchased a return ticket London/US/London which in general was quite a bit cheaper in the UK and kept going that way and then took the original flight back just before the year was over.

You have to trave a lot if you want to do it this way but it sure paid out for me.

Krautinz
Re: Trying to outthink the airline industry
Posted: 2006-02-27, 3:38 pm

JD
Posts: 13
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One of the reasons that the airline fair goes up is that the airport increases their airport tax. Schiphol has the highest airport tax in (western) Europe. This airport tax includes security to counter terrorism. All of these costs are allocated to the customers. Other airport in Europe allocated these costs both for the customers and the airport, so the airport tax doesn't go up as high as schiphol.
Re: Trying to outthink the airline industry
Posted: 2006-02-27, 7:08 pm

reckedchords
Posts: 4
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i just got my Houston to Amsterdam ticket for $402, bought 5 days before flying.

It was bouncing up to $600, you just have to keep searching every 5 minutes. I was using Travelocity.

i'll be there march 1- 10 !!
Re: Trying to outthink the airline industry
Posted: 2006-02-27, 11:39 pm

dolfino
Posts: 112
Location: philadelphia
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I can't find a flight from Philadelphia in April for less than $685. It's the same every year. The price will come down by the middle of March. Just look at seat availability on expedia. Flights are about 25% booked. They're just trying to overcharge the people who book early.
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