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Re: Refugees
Posted: 2015-09-17, 4:49 pm

drizzle
Posts: 291
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Well, who'd a thunk it?
A mongering forum as the go to place for balanced and informed debate on current events. Seriously Weasel, bravo. You have articulated almost exactly the sympathy that I have for people in straits so dire that they flee their homeland and face the attendant risks, and the simultaneous worry about how all this pans out. As usual, public debate is dominated by ideologues on both sides who are either 'Yay!Migration! Don't say anything horrid about them, they are all lovely,' or 'sink the boats, Muslim vermin the lot of em.'
Confused and worried, UK.
Re: Refugees
Posted: 2015-09-18, 1:45 am

weasel9x9Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Posts: 1866
Location: cheesehead central
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Well, Thank You, Drizzle.
I wrote a lot of reports when I was in the Middle East.
This is the only place where they were interspersed with porn adds!
So, thank you, Bluto, for making things more interesting.
Maybe If I had done the same over the years, someone would have bothered to read them.

Weasel

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Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-01-09, 5:48 am

fredSupporting Member
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Posts: 2579
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Roland wrote:
Found it really bothersome that their closest and wealthier neighbours (Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Kuwait among others) are not taking in Syrian refugees. Always thought that neighbours were there to help......

However, I read an interview with an Saudi official today who says their inaction is "deliberate" as they want the refugees to go to the west and spread Islam.

Regards, Roland


Saudi Arabia is sponsoring terrorists in Syria and in Yemen. Of course they would not take in one single Syrian or bombs will go off in SA like fireworks.

They would love to build Mosque to spread the diseases.

Turkey is all about money. They are not doing a good job to stem the flow of refugees into Europe but they welcome the 3 billions from EU. They have been exposed by Putin and confirmed by Norway for their support of ISIS.

Iran is the only foreign country who provides ground troops to help Assad to fight ISIS.

Viktor Orban is the man with the insights. Back in September, he warned EU, "these are organized invaders" despite the bullying efforts from Merkel and Hollande. After the attacks/rapes of German girls in Koln and in Hamburg on New Year's Eve by these Muslim migrants, Orban can call Merkel, "I told you so! You dumb bitch!"

Regards,
Fred
Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-09-29, 4:20 pm

josephallen
Posts: 194
Location: Lebanon
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here in lebanon we are a population of about 5million and we have 2-2.5m refugees accounted for, not president, corrupt politicians who keep getting elected cuz people are dumb(nice thing though if you know what you're doing you can make money out of this corruption and the dumb people) and most people are alive and well, we havent had a muder of problem in months, each month there is like just 1 robbery or something and the syrian gets caught so fast, beirut is getting more expensive and flourishing with new international chain hotels even though there is literally grabage everywhere(literally, google it) .. 800k in germany? 9k in netherlands? europe will survive lol dont worry ya'll amsterdam and berlin will keep flourishing but ya'll need to stop treating them nicely, here the military is 24/7 alert of all syrian activities, they catch ALOT of them hiding weapons and bombs, no mass shooting ever happened here, NEVER. and they stay nice and work hard for cheaper price, u cant give them privilages and ask them to just sit there and get money and food, they wouldnt need to be nice anymore to you..

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Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-09-30, 10:03 pm

neurosynthPower Kat XXX
Power Kat XXX
Posts: 2733
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Life is better now in Lebanon because Assad has been knocked back and is clawing to remain in control.

It hasn't always been so. If Assad regains full control his gaze will wander to Lebanon again. And the bombings and assassinations will begin again.

I wish peace for *all* the good people in the Middle East. But let's be honest about the evil that is Assad.

And Hezbollah.

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Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-10-01, 9:14 am

weasel9x9Supporting Member
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Posts: 1866
Location: cheesehead central
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Assad. What a problem.
His father was a problem too, but Hafez had good survival instincts. Bashear is well educated, but does not appear to have inherited any of his father's political skills.
Assad and most of his advisors are Alewhites. A Shia sect. Long supported by Iran, but also a Russian military partner.
An odd combination, as the Iranians have feared invasion by the Russians since the end of WWII.
The Russians and Iranians do not normally get along. Assad takes huge risks by asking for support of both sides. Either could turn on him. Quickly.
Assad is a war criminal. He used chemical weapons on his own people. Obama thought for a moment about doing something, but the moment passed without action. It would have been possible to use US air power against him very effectively, but now the Russians have moved in a significant number of aircraft, as well as BUK air defence missile systems. Air assaults at this point would likely lead to direct conflict between US and Russian fighters, risking WWIII. Also expect to lose a significant number of aircraft to the missile systems, and have pilots captured.
Any military action in Syria will require the destruction of the air defences as a first step. Anti-radar guided missie systems, radar-evading F-117 fighters. Only the US has these systems. They don't exist in Europe.
Good luck getting them.
And then you still have the Russian air force. The chance to strike passed as soon as the Russians were allowed to resupply and reinforce Assad. Rumor is that he has been living on a Russian destroyer for his own safety. Good luck bombing a Russian destroyer in an effort to kill Assad.
The Russians made Assad, and they will have to deal with him. You can't engage Assad in a fight without engaging the Russians...for now. The Russians won't support Assad forever. If he ever travels to Western Europe, he might be arrested as a war criminal. That just means he will never travel to western Europe. No negotiations, no possibility to move away from the Russians and Iranians.
His country is in ruins, and he is basically a prisoner there. He might be able to play the Russians against the Iranians--for a while--but eventually, one of those two will end his career when they can no longer use him.

This may end with the disintegration of Syria and Iraq. Failed states don't always get better. Sometimes they break apart.

Things can always get worse.

Weasel

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Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-10-01, 3:43 pm

lionel
Posts: 99
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Hi Weasel,the atrocity now being done in the Middle East,Syria,Yemen,Iraq,Libya,etc and the state of these regions boils down to certain Organisms that became commodities throughout the World,Oil?
These regions have been exploited in the Forage for this vital Life blood to almost any Domesticated Country(PC needed)and the Germans, Europe,English and Americans became aware from 1914 to the present day of it's importance.
The USA/CIA have been trying to depose the Assad Dynasty for the past Sixty Six years going back to the Golan Heights War,Where Israel took vast swathes of Oil and Gas Reserves since 1948.
Recently discovered off the Syrian Coast, even larger Reserves,with possible access to the deeper Seas of the coast of Africa,(Somalia) for Oil Tankers to Load up and take to the different,Continents throughout the World?
Two Former UK Prime Ministers have had their"Touchy"fingers singed in deposing Iraq,Libya Leaders in their ultimate conquest to dictate their will to the indigenous people?
Just where are these people supposed to go to after unleasing such tyranny to these people,(Arab Spring Uprising) UN Directive 273 in Libya,now muscelling in to the Ukraine?
Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-10-20, 6:18 am

weasel9x9Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Posts: 1866
Location: cheesehead central
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lionel,

The politics of the Middle East have revolved around the price of oil for the last century.
Historically, OPEC could set that price by controlling supply. They showed that power during the '72 oil embargo. The western world took notice and has been trying to avoid a similar fate ever since. Things have changed. It is now possible, through fracking and horizontal drilling to extract oil from the Bakken Oil reserves in North Dakota for about $50 a barrel. WIth experience and some technical innovations, that might fall to $40 a barrel. The Saudis can pump for $5-10 dollars a barrel. They make money, no matter what the price. Problem is, the Russians, Nigerians and Venezualians rely on oil income, but they barely break even at $50. They can't fund their economies at that price. They had planned on making huge profits with oil at $80-100 a barrel. Those days ar over. Their budgets are busted at $50. If the price goes much higher, the Americans just pump their own oil. If it goes lower, oil reliant economies suffer, but at different rates. High cost producers like Venezuela and Mexico suffer a lot. Even the Saudis suffer , just not as much.
Produciton in a war zone in Syria and Iraq is nearly impossible. You can't pump much oil when you are getting shot, bombed, and otherwise harassed. Foreign workers simply wont stay, and the locals just dont have the skills to do the work themselves. Look at the average cost of oil production by country. Draw a line at $50. Everyone below that line gets by. Everyone above that line sees their economy implode. If Venezuala and Nigeria implode, nobody really cares, but what about Russia. What happens if the Russian economy tanks?

All of this assumes that oil is a commodity, and can be shipped anywhere in the world. What if that is not true?
In wartime, it is easy to sink tankers. You might be able to pump in the middle east, but if you cant ship and sell, you are fucked. Iran can block oil shipments through the Straights of Hormuz. They have been playing games, and threatening blockdes with increasing frequency for the past few years. Oil is available in west Texas and now in North Dakota, so America can fend for itself, and is much less likely to go to war over this. The Russians can pump, so they don't care much. Same for Scandanavia. There is oil in the North Sea, and Romania, but not nearly enough to supply western Europe. They would hurt. China and the far east would be fucked. No chance to keep things running without paying through the ass, and they might not get supplies at any price.

Regarding refugees, there is enough blame to go around, but not in the ways that you might think.
FIrst and foremost, if your country is politically allied with Iran, and in military partnership with Russia, then you should expect help from them, and should not expect help from their adversaries. I know, this seems like a recipie for disaster, but what can I say. Don't do stupid things, and then expect your enemies to clean up your shit. Maybe in the future, this will serve as an example, and other countries will not make such stupid choices.
Syria is screwed beyond repair. Might break apart, becoming a Kurd state, with parts annexed by Turkey, and other adjacent countries, but it is hard to imagine it (and Iraq) surviving.
Second, Western europe agreed to certain terms when they joined NATO. They agreed to spen 2% of their annual budget on the military so that they would be prepared to act in a crisis. They lied. They lied bad. Only Denmark kept this promise. Not Germany, France, UK or the Netherlands. Not this year. Not last year. Never. Bad plan. Stupid shortsighted plan. The inability to act in the middle east, the inability to confront Russia, and the consequenses of this inability are now clear. Europe is going to take these refugees. Not just 1 or 2 or 3 million. Think 5-10 million. That's right. Take all the crap that you currently see as a result of refugees in Europe, and multiply by 5-10. Then imagine paying that cost for decade after decade.
Don't like that scenario? How about the wave of refugees if all-out war breaks loose?
How about the Russian economy fails, and they decide they can only get by if they take the resources of Poland, the Baltics, and the former Soviet states?

Glad that I have an unlimited supply of firewood, fish and moonshine out here in the forrest,

Weasel

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Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-10-21, 3:23 pm

lionel
Posts: 99
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Hi Weasel,you may have Fish,Firewood and Moonshine,but your missing your favourite times until you come out of hibernation ready to reproduce built up energies in Alkmaar or the Wallen with Wim and Company?
Thanks for your post,if only so called Inteligent people would"Give Peace a Chance",somehow stop the production of missiles,Ammunition's that destroy so many innocent people in the Wars that had been created.
It seems as though the"Thought Process"is ultimately based on Power,Greed,to sanctify their own personal Agendas and not ultimately give a shit of who lives or Dies,as long as it is not them?
Enjoy reading your posts and maybe some day I might bump into the"Awakening Bear"from his slumber,that is unless you and Vlad are in the Wallen at the same time in one of your drinking/Coffee Dens?
Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-10-23, 6:06 am

weasel9x9Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Posts: 1866
Location: cheesehead central
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Lionel,

Folk singers are cute, but they live in a fantasy world.
Resources are limited, and the ability to fight for, steal, or protect resources is a vital function of any society.
It is not a function of greed, or anything like it.
What little part of my famiy that survives today does a very good job of teaching their children what the consequenses are of being on the losing end of conflict.
The Iraqi's and Syrians did a very poor job managing their societies, and they are suffering for it now.
They bear this burden. You can't blame anyone else. You can feel bad for them, but it was inevitable.
It appears thet the Kurds understand this, and I think they will be the major victors in the northern part of this area of chaos.
In the south, it looks like we will see a proxy war between sunni (isis) and shia forces, with no end in sight.
The Russians took a nearly deccade-long beating in Afganastan in the 80's, and if they choose to prop up Assad, they will likely get the same in Syria. Westerners don't understand this conflict, and need to admit that they really don't have a dog in this fight. They should cut their losses now, but if the Russians chose to arm Assad, then so be it. There are certain fights that are going to happen, no matter what you do. Sticking your nose into a riot in Moscow, or Havana, or Pyung Yang, is a huge mistake. Damascus is a Syrian (and Russian) problem, and no matter how many times John Kerry whines about it, that fact will not change.
I don't think things will settle in the middle east until the main event--the long prophesised battle for supremacy in the Muslim world between Sunni and Shia. Saudi Arabia vs. Iran.
Given that Sunni's outnumber Shia 10:1 worldwide, and that the economy of Saudi Arabia dwarfs the economy of Iran, I would bet on the Sunni's. But the Shia have been able to get by as the minority for 1500 years. They are not going to simply give up. ( as a side note, Shia are more likely to integrate with western society, are more likely to tolerate outsiders, and are more able to adapt to change. You will never meet a "Fundamentalist Shia", because Shia Islam is, by design, adaptable. Sunni Islam is much more rigid in adherence to the Koran)
As for the rest of the world, stay the hell out. Do not offer arms, but neither offer refuge. The citizens of that part of the world need to come to some conclusion, and allowing them to escape that decision by offering refuge in the west only prolongs the misery.

Wish there was a simple solution. Wish that there was something that the Western world could do.
This will get worse before it gets better.
Would you prefer a regional conflict of incredible misery, or will you invite this into your country and risk the global version?

Weasel

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Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-10-25, 12:34 pm

lightmeup
Posts: 107
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Weasel, do you think it's possible that our ruling class is deliberately stirring up all of this trouble over there to flood our countries with refugees in order to demoralise and weaken the resistance of the western populations to the increased centralisation of power and government interference in the daily lives of it's citizens by using the threat of terrorism and the general fear of "Johnny foreigner" and Muslim sharia law militant Islam? I'm sorry to sound paranoid but it seems weird how we (Uk and USA) seem to keep getting caught arming terrorists in the region and also wikileaks leaking weird spook spy Mi5 and CIA connections to known terrorists? are they double agents? WTF? the CIA trained the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan right? Are the western countries only involved, not for the oil, not only this, but in order to create a chaos in which everyone but those at the very eye of the hurricane are so battered by the psychic debris that they cannot see how ruthlessly they are being swindled and ultimately repressed.
Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-10-25, 4:35 pm

G.laGaffe Power Kat
Posts: 752
Location: Bruxelles, Belgium
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As living in a city where many butchers simply do not sell pork anymore (serious):

No, I do not think the ruling classes are in a big conspiracy. But I do think they are incredibly stupid, unbelieveably shortsighted and have not learned anything from the - even recent - past. More: I would say they are acting very human...

Gaston.
(looking for his aluminium hat - and off to make Choucroute garni the proper way while he still can)
Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-10-28, 7:54 pm

weasel9x9Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Posts: 1866
Location: cheesehead central
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Lightmeup,

"Never let a good crisis go to waste"
Rahm Emanuel, Former Obama White House Chief of Staff,
and current Mayor of Chicago

"How can we use this?"
John Podesta, Chief of Staff to Hillary Clinton,
on the news that a black man was killed by a choke hold at the hands of NYC police,
as released in a Wikileaks dump this month.

I was going to say that it is a little paranoid to accuse politicians of deliberately causing or using chaos to rule, but I guess I have to (unhappily) concede this point. You can claim and use a lot of exceptional powers during crisis. Most people recognize that this is very dangerous, but a few exceptional assholes seem to hope and plan for just such scenarios. Unfortunately, several of them are currently in positions of great power.

I don't think that this is the root of chaos in the Middle East. I think they generally meant to make things better, but made really bad plans, refused to change those plans when it became clear that they were failing, and (in the case of America) are just sitting idle until after the election.

Yes, the CIA aided the Mujahideen. And the Shah of Iran, and Sadam Hussein, and Anwar Sadat, and...
They are into everything, everywhere. It is their job to know everything (though they seem to have problems USING the information they harvest).
They have long had a policy that "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". They also believe that they can exhaust the resources of American enemies by stirring up resistance and rebellion in the Middle East. I don't think that they honestly believe they can exert domestic control this way. Well, most of them don't believe that, but there are always zealot whack jobs, even in the CIA( or especially at the CIA, if you wish!). There is a glaring problem with this strategy. If you cause decades of armed conflict in part of the world, people there get better at it. They learn. They gather weapons, and become better at using them. And their children, rather than growing up to be dentists and gardeners, grow up to be mercenaries. You produce a hyper violent society, one that is not going to accept democracy, or have peaceful transitions of power.

There is no tradition of democracy in the region. It has historically been run by monarchies and chieftains. The effect of the last few dacades of war in the region makes it even less likely that democracy will ever take hold. At this point, stable dictatorships would be a huge improvement. Maybe we can send them Rahm Emanuel.

Weasel

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Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-10-31, 12:35 pm

G.laGaffe Power Kat
Posts: 752
Location: Bruxelles, Belgium
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Agree 100%

It's almost too much wisdom in one post...


Gaston.
Re: Refugees
Posted: 2016-11-22, 11:18 pm

funfor2houston
Posts: 392
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Me just talking with 35 years in the Oil & Gas business . The middle East O&G market is pretty much going to dwindle off. Some things to think about such countries in western Europe have O&G the only problem was getting to it . Technology will make Germany a western Europe supplier of Natural Gas . As far as the war Saudi Arabia has financed a mess for years in the middle east . They are scared to death of Iran . When Iotola Khomeini left France to return to Iran , that was the beginning of the second Islamic empire . They will not take the world by war but by just plain over running the west . People don't want to accept this but it is here .

I don't know if y'all seen the BBC Journalist who went undercover in a German refuge camp . She spoke fluent Arabic and was able to understand what they were saying . These people are preaching that death to Christians and demanding the women have more children so they will increase the Islamic population .

Khomeini wanted this he wanted to end Christianity without firing a bullet .
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